My Crystal Ball or Yours...

Back in college we used to joke that we were studying more and more about less and less so by the time we graduated we would know everything about nothing. As I go along this seems true about rose breeding, too.

During the past week many of you have helped to test the mechanics of a survey that I am helping our members from Texas A&M University to conduct. There were 28 completed surveys. Thanks to all of you for that, it really has helped iron out some problems and decide some issues about the question formats.

Now we need to get down to sharp copper alloy fasteners.

Surveys are a way that we can use many smaller, specific questions to answer a few ā€˜big pictureā€™ type research questions. This project was started to help answer some of these big picture questions put forth by the TAMU folks but it is a joint project with the RHA so you can ask big questions too.

Some big questions Iā€™ve wondered about have to do with marketing:

  • what factors decide which types of plants do well in the retail marketplace?

  • are there new or unidentified opportunities such as in the municipal landscaping sector?

  • has the recent shake-out in the rose business created new opportunities for independent hybridizers like me?

This is a golden opportunity. We will be polling people along the entire rose supply chain - breeders, propagators, nurseries, garden centers, rosarians, garden designers, landscapers, hobbyists and whomever else we can cast a net around.

The overall goal is to help inform us all about what we should be aiming for in our breeding programs. Post your ā€˜big pictureā€™ questions here and we will try to ask the right survey questions to help answer them.

Don

ps. - Almost everybody identified the three rose diseases correctly.

These observations apply to one prosperous midwestern college town but there are quite a few similar places Iā€™ve seen in my travels. But also many far less progressive.

Landscaping companies that install greenery with irrigation and regular maintenance contracts represent a smallish fraction of total sales, but Iā€™d say a large majority of successful installations. A lot (hundred per place) of K.O. types get sold at each of the big boxes, along with a few (dozens) dregs of waxed graftings of everything else. Looking in individual yards I see the K.O. struggle and often die in a drought, and the dregs disappear in a year or less. But some of the prominent places landscapings are going on and on year after year with heavy spring pruning, water and fertilizer. Not one bush lost in 5 years for many. So which is the better market?

I also find that wholesalers drive the market amongst the landscapers. When trying to ID a really good looking planting I traced it back from the local to the Kansas City supplier who has some of this and some of that, growing from liners to planting size then distributing round the region. He decides what we have to choose from.

Our university housing department depends on one person with hopefully good taste to do their rose choices. She has gotten some interesting ones out there for us.

Local nurseries sell a limited number of K.O. types at what I consider astronomical prices, like $75 per 4 gal instant effect size. They also largely get them from a wholesaler.

One adventurous local fruit and veg market buys in what the owner likes, posts them early and brings them up in a high tunnel for a month before sales time. For $25 I got Skyā€™s the Limit. I know someone else has one too. Sunny K.O. round my area came from a big box a couple years ago and is holding up.

the only market I see really opening is for little annual transplants. Bedding plants.

One of the areas I see that is greatly needed, but also largely ignored is the regionalization of distribution of roses. I spoke with a representative from Weeks Roses after a lecture that was given to the Yankee District about regionalization, but my efforts largely fell upon deaf ears. (Some of their introductions were only recommended for growers south of the Mason-Dixon line.) I also see in the latest issue of The American Rose, where descriptions of new introductions are being recommend for people only west of the Mississippi River. While I applaud efforts to combat regionalization issues, I ask why are roses still being introduced that are disease-prone to the point that warnings need to be issued with them? And, the problems are known before the roses are introduced, but the roses are being introduced anyway?

Andy

Andy, those warnings actually do indicate ā€˜regional rosesā€™. Personally, I donā€™t think the one size fits all has ever worked, nor do I believe it is realistic. From the corporate view, they are necessary so keep things simple and streamlined. Economies of scale are well suited to the national dozen, instead of three or four each for five or six regions. Even if the perfect roses for each one could be created, the perverse nature of humans requires they only want what they canā€™t HAVE.

I also donā€™t feel it realistic to believe we will ever have national roses which perform similarly across the nation. There are simply too many different climates, different strains of fungi, lengths and intensities of seasons, etc. Even simply considering California, I ā€œenjoyā€ a variation between day and night temps at the extremes of fifty degrees. The variation between winter and summer in my old climate could be as much as one hundred degrees. The ā€œnormalā€ annual rainfall is around fifteen inches. This past year, it was FIVE inches. Just a few hundred miles north of me, they receive thirty-five inches with a whopping twenty degrees variation between day and night at the extremes and in bad years, winter to summer variation can be as ā€œgreatā€ as forty degrees. The kinds of roses which endure my climate are generally going to be rather different from those which flourish in the climate north of me. Even those which are fairly adapted to both, can perform tremendously different between that climate and mine.

Move to Chicago where the annual rainfall is something around forty inches. They sometimes get feet of snow for many months and can have very deep freezes. My climate can dip to the teens in really terrible years, but only for an hour or so before it bounces back to more endurable temps. Add the variation in fungi strains to such tremendously different climates and you get the idea. You know what yours is like in comparison and how popular roses, reported as decent in other climates, perform in yours. Is it honestly realistic to expect any rose to perform to a similary acceptable level in such widely varying conditions?

Can we honestly expect a rose which is programmed to remain evergreen, push new growth and flower well for ten-plus months to know when to shut down and endure the kinds of freezes your area receives? Both of our populations demand the plant remain attractive and endure the extremes in conditions. In this ā€œland of endless summerā€ it had also better offer at least some color twelve months of the year or it is eventually doomed. We have too many choices which will perform here for the average, unfamiliar ā€œrose buyerā€ to accept a thorny plant which only flowers a short period. For many, until they gain some experience and learn the benefits, getting them to accept deciduous trees is nearly impossible. A bare plant is dead to them. You can imagine how many have called to report the tree they purchased ā€œdiedā€ because all the leaves fell off. I always knew to expect it at this time of year. No matter how many explanations were made to prevent it, the calls always came. Youā€™d choke on how many called to report ā€œdead rosesā€ because the flowers fell off. No joke.

If conditions were more similar across the nation, one size fitting all may work. But even just a few miles here can make tremendous differences. Enough to make whole classes of plants either suitable or totally unsuitable. Right here, Bougainvillea is Kudzu. Three miles away, it freezes to death in winter. Hibiscus is healthy, vigorous, pest free and ever flowering in my yard without intervention. At the bottom of my hill, there is white fly making them require spraying. Travel through the pass just seventeen miles north into the next valley and neither bougainvillea nor hibiscus can be grown as anything other than annuals. Roses are tremendously more adaptable, but you get the idea. I honestly donā€™t think we can realistically expect the same performance in your climate and mine from the same genetic combinations.

Interesting answers to MY questions but this thread is intended to gather YOUR questions.

If you could ask a room full of everybody in the rose world what would you ask them?

Don, I would ask your roomful of rosy folk these questions.

The rose market in the US imploded. HTā€™s are no longer the staple and Knockout saved the day for producers and sellers alike.

What are the projections for the industry in the future, will the big producers be replaced by similiar companies or will there be a shift and a new paradigm established.

Was the shift in HT production consumer driven? What volume of the top few most popular HTā€™s are produced annually in the US? What number of plants of Graham Thomas and Iceberg are produced annually?

Thanks

Mike

Mike, thanks for these. Iā€™m wondering why you chose to specify Graham Thomas and Iceberg?

I feel that the industry mainly paid attention to the voices within the American Rose Society. Due to its constitution, the ARS is/was very resistent to change. I feel that its thinking is/was dominated by hybrid tea ā€œrose showersā€ (especially from Southern California). In many parts of the U.S., roses developed a reputation as needing spraying by harmful chemicals and not being winter hardy.

I suggest that the best model for the future of rose growing in the U.S. is to base it on what has/is happening in Canada.

Although the following link is not specifically about roses, I think those who still use (and advocate) questionable chemical sprays could benefit from the message:

Don I might be able to answer half of your question to Mike. In Australia Iceberg would be the largest selling rose in this country, it growth , flower repeat and ease of cultivation cannot be beaten. Graham Thomas does extremely well here as too.

What I see commercially is mostly Knock outs and Iceberg, this being SoCal. And they bloom a lot, and mostly look good here with professional care, even if that care is not especially tailored to roses, per se. What I am wondering is " What number of plants of Knock Out and Iceberg are produced annually, and how big a percentage is this of the total rose production?"

Iā€™d like to what the industry can do or plans to do to promote the diversity of the rose so that we donā€™t have Knock Out become the only available rose. I see it starting in the big box stores, and it is starting to creep into the gardens centers, where it is the only variety available.

I am a long way away from the US, but would like to add this bit. The questions that come to mind are.

  1. Demographics, by this I mean where people live, what sort of accommodation, house/ flat/rent.

  2. Family unit type thing, single/married. Life/Work style commitment

  3. Age, I believe is something that needs to be in the mix. Do they only know unit/flat style living or have they grown up with plants

  4. This next part is hard to place into words for a survey, but goes something like this" here are 3 rose flowers can you tell what variety they are" This is where the ā€œmarketingā€ of a rose or plant comes into it. I think this is where the education part comes into it.

I hope some of this helps.

What type of rose(s) will dominate sales in this new century for Australia?

What type of rose(s) will dominate sales in this new century for the rest of the world?

In my opinion divergence of aimed at different markets roses will continue.

Even if sharing some features such as desease resistance; Florist cut roses, Table pot roses, Public planting roses, and garden roses will little interfere.

A convergence is actual: garden roses that make a nice flowering sale point container.

A breeding goal the large houses like Meilland and Kordes have.

Yeah, Iā€™d like to see the Sonia/French Lace/Kanegem/Kardinal 85/Freedom plant archetype and bloom style, with the superior disease resistance, vigor, cold hardiness, and rooting.

Double Knock Out, The Finest, and Winter Sunset are good starts to the improved concept, with the idea that a person would have the space to grow pretty outdoor roses they could cut for for the indoors or leave outside to bloom.

Hi Don

My questions were intended to determine what proportion of the market is apportioned to each variety of rose. Graham T. is a popular Austin and Iceberg is an example of a popular floribunda. Although Knockout dominates sales what sort of numbers make up the rest.

It is intriguing to wonder if the range of roses grown is brought about by public demand, through retailers ordering or wholesalers directing what will be available.

It is also of interest to me to note that although the market has shrunken considerably there is still a large market out there.

Jackie, it is my understanding that about half of the current production of roses in the US is Knockout at around 7,000,000 plants per year.

Mike

As a stay-home Mom who likes to shop for plants, itā€™s all about clever-marketing. The new edition of ā€œEncyclopedia of Rosesā€ mentioned that the German breeder who sold tons of Flower-Carpet did so through flashy display. I saw Flower carpet sold in hot pink containers with a tall tripod-handle which hung a big picture of blooming flower-carpet. Very gaudy like a wedding cake, and it worked.

If Kimā€™s 100% smooth Annie L. McDowell got marketed in a bright pink container, with a huge sign ā€œNo-spray thornless rose, smells like lavender and lilacā€ under a gaudy pic. - Iā€™m sure itā€™ll be sold like hot cakes. I tried to convince my neighbor to buy roses on-line, but she doesnā€™t want to wait 8 months to receive them. The mentality is ā€œI want it now, and it looks good & sounds good, Iā€™ll grab itā€.

ā€¦ah yes, the impulse buyers !

Don, one person you also need to poll is the end purchaser, or even the nursery shopper who does not purchase a rose. It would be worthwhile to determine what would make them take a nice (and expensive) rose plant home. (Iā€™m sure lots of gardeners are willing to take a chance with a body-bag bare-root rose for $4, only to have their suspicions about this group of plants confirmed. Not that Iā€™m necessarily bashing such ā€“ Iā€™ve frequently had cheap BB roses excel beyond overpriced J&P babies in the past.)

I think most of us have a sense of the problems that have occurred with the marketing of roses, the negative experiences of gardeners, and the reputation the plant earned. But even most of the big box stores can get it right when selling OTHER garden plants. I see plenty of Texas sage, Tecoma stans, and Salvia greggii here in central Texas, and occasionally, big flats of Belindaā€™s Dream and ā€œGrandmaā€™s Roseā€ come in from local propagators, so one canā€™t say that all garden centers are clueless as to what sells regionally. Oh sure, they carry the fuchsias with the one year guarantee at Home Depot tooā€¦ Clearly there are clueless folks in corporate, or clueless purchasers who are taken in, but who donā€™t bother going for the refund.

The question is, does the problem occur on the demand side, or on the marketing and distribution end of the equation?

Find out what drives the end consumer, and you will find out what we all need to know. Ultimately, I expect the end consumer has limited sources of information, and most are driven by the impulse purchase. A rose is a rose to them. ā€¦And once burnedā€¦

I have, for years, trumpeted the need for a different set of rose trials for the USA. The notion of an ā€œAll American Roseā€ selection has always irked. me. I have NO other plant in my entire yard that purports to grow all over America, yet that is the ridiculous expectation hoisted on the rose.

I may have to dig up one of those old threads of mine about rose trialsā€¦ Ultimately, decent regional rose trials offering meaningful scores would serve as education, and would sell roses once a new methodology were to be accepted by the public.